Springboks' Top Spot on the Line as Rankings Shake-Up Looms Over Nations Championship Weekend

The table says South Africa are the best team in the world. This weekend will test whether they stay there. International rugby returns on Friday night after the July break, with the inaugural Nations Championship resuming across three rounds before finals weekend at Twickenham on November 27-29. Ireland host Argentina at the Aviva Stadium tonight, and by Sunday evening, when England meet Australia at Twickenham, the World Rugby rankings could look very different. According to the permutations published by World Rugby on Friday, as many as three places in the top eight could change hands. Start at the top. South Africa, on 93.09 points, travel to Turin to face Italy on Saturday knowing defeat would cost them first place — if it is paired with an All Blacks victory or draw at Murrayfield. The Springboks cannot improve their rating even with a win, such is the 14.79-point gap between the sides, and they cannot fall lower than second. Italy, meanwhile, have everything to gain: a first win over the world champions in all but one of their meetings would lift the Azzurri two places to ninth, above Wales and a beaten Fiji. Then Murrayfield, where the weekend's most tantalising possibility lives. New Zealand have never lost to Scotland. Not once, in more than a century of meetings. But Gregor Townsend's side, full-strength with Finn Russell, Huw Jones and captain Sione Tuipulotu restored, believe this is their moment, and the rankings would reward them handsomely for it. A first-ever Scottish win would lift them to at least a share of their all-time high of fifth, and if Ireland, France and England all lose as well, Scotland could finish the weekend third in the world. The All Blacks, for their part, cannot drop below second even in defeat — but a Springboks slip in Turin paired with them avoiding defeat in Edinburgh would return Dave Rennie's side to the top of the pile. The battle for third is where the weekend gets truly tangled. Ireland, on 88.08, hold the spot now, but France can take it by beating Fiji in Lyon if Argentina also win in Dublin. Les Bleus, though, are walking a tightrope of their own: defeat to Fiji, depending on the margin and other results, could send them as low as eighth, their worst position since October 2019. England, fifth on 85.68, could climb to third with a home win over Australia and an Ireland defeat — or plunge to eighth if Ireland win by more than 15 points and they lose by the same margin to the Wallabies. Australia, seventh on 84.43, have their own prize in sight. An upset at Twickenham, with other results falling their way, could lift the Wallabies to third — their highest position since November 2021. Given they conceded 93 points across two Bledisloe Tests and have spent the week working on defensive repairs at the ruck, that would be some turnaround. There is movement further down too. In the Nations Cup, Georgia cannot move from 13th whatever happens against Canada, but the Canadians could return to the top 20 for the first time since February 2019. Chile could climb to a new high of 14th by beating Portugal. And Samoa, beaten this weekend, would slip out of the top 20 for the first time since the rankings were introduced in October 2003. These are the last Tests against southern-hemisphere opposition before next year's World Cup, and every northern-hemisphere coach knows it. The rankings move on Monday; the reputations built or dented this weekend will last much longer.