A Week In, Nothing Has Happened: Baseball Heads to Las Vegas With the Clock Running Out

Baseball's offseason has been open for a week, and the honest summary of it fits in one sentence: nothing has happened. No major free agent has signed. No significant trade has been made. The first real transaction of the winter came on Friday, when the Washington Nationals gave centre fielder Jacob Young a four-year, $23 million extension. A fair deal for a good player — and it says everything about where this offseason stands. The headline move of November so far is a team keeping its own centre fielder. That is why Monday matters. The general managers meetings begin in Las Vegas on November 9 and run through November 12, and this year they are not the usual polite warm-up act. People inside the game expect the action to start there, according to ESPN's Jorge Castillo, and the consensus is that November will be a frantic month, much like the run-up to the 2021 lockout. The reason is the calendar. The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1. When it goes, everything freezes — signings, trades, even contact between teams and players. The Winter Meetings, set for December 7-9 in San Diego, would not happen. The smart play was a frenzy: get your business done in November before the doors close. Instead, so far, silence. Here is what the sport will be listening for in Vegas, starting with the biggest name on the board. Tarik Skubal is the best player available, a two-time Cy Young winner, and ESPN's Jeff Passan reports he is expected to sign before the CBA expires for a record contract. The Dodgers and Mets are the names you hear most, and ESPN's Kiley McDaniel reports the Yankees are "thinking about" a run. If Skubal signs before December 1, the dam breaks. If he does not, nobody is signing anything of consequence until there is a new deal — and nobody knows when that will be. Then there is Teruaki Sato, the Japanese slugger, who must sign before December 1 as well, with the Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies and Yankees all linked to him. His 45-day posting window is a deadline inside a deadline. If he signs fast, it tells you the market is alive. If he waits, it tells you even the players with the most leverage are reading the same calendar as everyone else. The third thread belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays, who lost the World Series in five games to the Milwaukee Brewers and now face a question about their own window. MLB insider Bob Nightengale says the Rays could jump back into trade talks for Ketel Marte, who has about $85 million left on his deal. The question in Vegas is whether Tampa acts like a team whose window is open, or one about to sell a piece of it before the lights go out. And then there are the qualifying offers. Only eight went out this winter, in what USA Today called the weakest class in at least a decade. Those eight players have until November 17 to accept or decline a one-year, $23.15 million deal. In a normal winter, most decline without a second thought. In this winter, with a lockout coming, $23.15 million guaranteed for one year looks a lot different. How many take the money and wait? The GM meetings are usually where baseball's decision-makers start talking. This year, the question is whether anybody has anything to say just yet — or whether the whole sport is simply waiting for December 1. Las Vegas will tell us.